Friday, July 15

"Life is a paradox, you're damned if you do and damned if you don't"

This is one of my Fav paradoxes. A lil girl from Australia sent it to me last year. Read on.... According to the principle of indifference, if we have no good reason for preferring one truth value over another as regards a particular proposition, we should assign a probability of 1/2 to that proposition. This principle is open to many forms of abuse, the most popular illustration of this being the life on Mars paradox, which is presented below in the form of a dialogue between A and B. A: What is the chance of there being some form of life on Mars? B: I have no good evidence for or against, so I will answer 1/2. A: OK. Now what's the chance of no animal life on Mars? B: Again, I must answer 1/2. A: And the chance of no non-animal life on Mars? B: Again, 1/2. A: So the chance of no life (ie. no animal life and no non-animal life) on Mars = 1/2 x 1/2 = 1/4? B: Well, yes, I suppose so. A: But then the probability of some life on Mars must be 1 - 1/4 i.e. 3/4? B: Wel...that seems to follow, all right. A: You agree then that 1/2 = 3/4? B: Now hold on a minute! What went wrong?

10 comments:

Anonymous said...

Oye there is a mistake in the wording itself. No non-animal life ( == animal life double negation funda i guess???) prob in the life category = 1/2 and non-animal life ( == plant life) prob in the life category =1/2. Effectively u have classified life as non-animal (plant) and animal. So it has to be either of the two. So the actual probability that there is life and it is non-animal is 1/4. The probability that there is life and it is animal is 1/4. So now the complement that there is no life is 1-1/4-1/4=1/2.
Now we can round and round on the merry go-round and try to catch our own tails...

Anonymous said...

that's why this is a paradox.duh!!

Self Writeous said...

I thought it was 42!! Guess I was wrong!!

Prashanth said...

Bye Deeee! *sniff* SP reaches for a handkerchief.

Hey Vc, I saw Sahara yesterday. Matthew McCoughney and Penelope Cruz are probably the worst choices for the roles, but the movie was good timepass masala action.

Anonymous said...

Hey Vc,
I agree with anony that if u word it wrongly you can't call it a paradox. A paradox is something that appears to be untrue but is true or vice versa.
--kk

Vc said...

OMG who is this Anony ? who starts with "Oye" ??

The second one was me.. but who was the first one ??

HOH 42 ? You must be kidding me ...that's RB's waist.

SP, Hey saw that film ages ago dude.. yeah mast time pass movie..

Kk I missed you by 20 minutes..che..

Anonymous said...

:-) Guess Who!

Vc said...

Who who .. pls who who ??

Anonymous said...

This lil girl is now officially an adult in Australia. That's who! Hehe :-)

Anonymous said...

uhahhhhaaaaaaa